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Ice shelves around Antarctica can provide back stress for outlet glaciers and control ice sheet mass loss. They often contain narrow bands of thin ice termed ice shelf channels. Ice shelf channel morphology can be interpreted through surface depressions and exhibits junctions and deflections from flowlines. Using ice flow modeling and radar, we investigate ice shelf channels in the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf. These are aligned obliquely to the prevailing easterly winds. In the shallow radar stratigraphy, syncline and anticline stacks occur beneath the upwind and downwind side, respectively. The structures are horizontally and vertically coherent, except near an ice shelf channel junction where patterns change structurally with depth. Deeper layers truncate near basal incisions. Using ice flow modeling, we show that the stratigraphy is ∼9 times more sensitive to atmospheric variability than to oceanic variability. This is due to the continual adjustment toward flotation. We propose that syncline-anticline pairs in the shallow stratigraphy are caused by preferential snow deposition on the windward side and wind erosion at the downwind side. This drives downwind deflection of ice shelf channels of several meters per year. The depth variable structures indicate formation of an ice shelf channel junction by basal melting. We conclude that many ice shelf channels are seeded at the grounding line. Their morphology farther seaward is shaped on different length scales by ice dynamics, the ocean, and the atmosphere. These processes act on finer (subkilometer) scales than are captured by most ice, atmosphere, and ocean models, yet the dynamics of ice shelf channels may have broader implications for ice shelf stability.

Direct measurements of spatially distributed vertical strain within ice masses are scientifically valuable but challenging to acquire. We use manual marker tracking and automatic cross correlation between two repeat optical televiewer (OPTV) images of an ~100 m-long borehole at Derwael Ice Rise (DIR), Antarctica, to reconstruct discretised, vertical strain rate and velocity at millimetre resolution. The resulting profiles decay with depth, from −0.07 a−1 at the surface to ~−0.002 a−1 towards the base in strain and from −1.3 m a−1 at the surface to ~−0.5 m a−1 towards the base in velocity. Both profiles also show substantial local variability. Three coffee-can markers installed at different depths into adjacent boreholes record consistent strain rates and velocities, although averaged over longer depth ranges and subject to greater uncertainty. Measured strain-rate profiles generally compare closely with output from a 2-D ice-flow model, while the former additionally reveal substantial high-resolution variability. We conclude that repeat OPTV borehole logging represents an effective means of measuring distributed vertical strain at millimetre scale, revealing high-resolution variability along the uppermost ~100 m of DIR, Antarctica.

Ice shelves, which regulate ice flow from the Antarctic ice sheet towards the ocean, are shaped by spatiotemporal patterns of surface accumulation, surface/basal melt and ice dynamics. Therefore, an ice dynamic and accumulation history are imprinted in the internal ice stratigraphy, which can be imaged by radar in the form of internal reflection horizons (IRHs). Here, IRHs were derived from radar data combined across radar platforms (airborne and ground-based) in coastal eastern Dronning Maud Land (East Antarctica), comprising three ice rises and adjacent two ice shelves. To facilitate interpretation of dominant spatiotemporal patterns of processes shaping the local IRH geometry, traced IRHs are classified into three different types (laterally continuous, discontinuous or absent/IRH-free). Near-surface laterally continuous IRHs reveal local accumulation patterns, reflecting the mean easterly wind direction, and correlate with surface slopes. Areas of current and past increased ice flow and internal deformation are marked by discontinuous or IRH-free zones, and can inform about paleo ice-stream dynamics. The established IRH datasets extend continent-wide mapping efforts of IRHs to an important and climatically sensitive ice marginal region of Antarctica and are ready for integration into ice-flow models to improve predictions of Antarctic ice drainage.

The limited number of surface mass balance (SMB) observations in the Antarctic inland hampers estimates of ice-sheet contribution to global sea level and locations with million-year-old ice. We present finely resolved SMB over the past three centuries in a low-accumulation region with significant depth hoar formation on Dome Fuji derived from ∼1,100 km of microwave radar stratigraphy dated with a firn core. The regional-mean SMB over the past 264 years is estimated to ∼22.5 ± 3.3 kg m−2 a−1, but with large local variability of up to 30%. We found that local SMB is negatively correlated with surface slope at scales of a few hundred meters, resulting in anomalous zones of low SMB which represent as much as 8–10% of the total SMB on the inland plateau if the SMB-slope relationship is more widely valid. This impact should be investigated further to improve estimates of Antarctic mass balance and sea-level contribution.

The variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets occurs on various timescales and is important for projections of sea level rise; however, there are substantial uncertainties concerning future ice-sheet mass changes. In this Review, we explore the degree to which short-term fluctuations and extreme glaciological events reflect the ice sheets’ long-term evolution and response to ongoing climate change. Short-term (decadal or shorter) variations in atmospheric or oceanic conditions can trigger amplifying feedbacks that increase the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change. For example, variability in ocean-induced and atmosphere-induced melting can trigger ice thinning, retreat and/or collapse of ice shelves, grounding-line retreat, and ice flow acceleration. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is especially prone to increased melting and ice sheet collapse from warm ocean currents, which could be accentuated with increased climate variability. In Greenland both high and low melt anomalies have been observed since 2012, highlighting the influence of increased interannual climate variability on extreme glaciological events and ice sheet evolution. Failing to adequately account for such variability can result in biased projections of multi-decadal ice mass loss. Therefore, future research should aim to improve climate and ocean observations and models, and develop sophisticated ice sheet models that are directly constrained by observational records and can capture ice dynamical changes across various timescales.

The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over past decades through the accelerated flow of its glaciers, conditioned by ocean temperature and bed topography. Glaciers retreating along retrograde slopes (that is, the bed elevation drops in the inland direction) are potentially unstable, while subglacial ridges slow down the glacial retreat. Despite major advances in the mapping of subglacial bed topography, significant sectors of Antarctica remain poorly resolved and critical spatial details are missing. Here we present a novel, high-resolution and physically based description of Antarctic bed topography using mass conservation. Our results reveal previously unknown basal features with major implications for glacier response to climate change. For example, glaciers flowing across the Transantarctic Mountains are protected by broad, stabilizing ridges. Conversely, in the marine basin of Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, we find retrograde slopes along Ninnis and Denman glaciers, with stabilizing slopes beneath Moscow University, Totten and Lambert glacier system, despite corrections in bed elevation of up to 1 km for the latter. This transformative description of bed topography redefines the high- and lower-risk sectors for rapid sea level rise from Antarctica; it will also significantly impact model projections of sea level rise from Antarctica in the coming centuries.

Abstract The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary effort of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project?Phase 6) focusing on ice sheets, designed to provide an ensemble of process-based projections of the ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise over the twenty-first century. However, the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet beyond 2100 remains largely unknown: several instability mechanisms can develop on longer time scales, potentially destabilizing large parts of Antarctica. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution until 2300 are presented here, using an ensemble of 16 ice-flow models and forcing from global climate models. Under high-emission scenarios, the Antarctic sea-level contribution is limited to less than 30 cm sea-level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, but increases rapidly thereafter to reach up to 4.4 m SLE by 2300. Simulations including ice-shelf collapse lead to an additional 1.1 m SLE on average by 2300, and can reach 6.9 m SLE. Widespread retreat is observed on that timescale in most West Antarctic basins, leading to a collapse of large sectors of West Antarctica by 2300 in 30%?40% of the ensemble. While the onset date of retreat varies among ice models, the rate of upstream propagation is highly consistent once retreat begins. Calculations of sea-level contribution including water density corrections lead to an additional ?10% sea level and up to 50% for contributions accounting for bedrock uplift in response to ice loading. Overall, these results highlight large sea-level contributions from Antarctica and suggest that the choice of ice sheet model remains the leading source of uncertainty in multi-century projections.

We present Bedmap3, the latest suite of gridded products describing surface elevation, ice-thickness and the seafloor and subglacial bed elevation of the Antarctic south of 60 °S. Bedmap3 incorporates and adds to all post-1950s datasets previously used for Bedmap2, including 84 new aero-geophysical surveys by 15 data providers, an additional 52 million data points and 1.9 million line-kilometres of measurement. These efforts have filled notable gaps including in major mountain ranges and the deep interior of East Antarctica, along West Antarctic coastlines and on the Antarctic Peninsula. Our new Bedmap3/RINGS grounding line similarly consolidates multiple recent mappings into a single, spatially coherent feature. Combined with updated maps of surface topography, ice shelf thickness, rock outcrops and bathymetry, Bedmap3 reveals in much greater detail the subglacial landscape and distribution of Antarctica’s ice, providing new opportunities to interpret continental-scale landscape evolution and to model the past and future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheets.

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.