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If all the ice in the Antarctic ice sheet were to melt, the world’s oceans would rise about 58 metres. Although nobody expects anything that dramatic to happen, current knowledge doesn’t tell us what we might actually expect. The Fimbulisen project should help eliminate some of the uncertainty.

The mass balance of Antarctica is one of the crucial factors for determining sea-level change in a warming climate. The marginal zones of the continent, namely the ice shelves, are most sensitive to climate change. During the 2009/10 austral summer an extensive glaciological field campaign was carried out on Fimbulisen, an ice shelf in East Antarctica, to investigate its recent surface mass balance. Shallow (10–18 m) firn cores were drilled and accumulation rates and stable-isotope ratios determined. For firn-core dating, two different methods were compared: (1) seasonal variations of stable oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O), and (2) dielectric profiling, including using the volcanic eruptions of Pinatubo, Philippines (1991), and El Chichόn, Mexico (1982), as time markers. The mean annual accumulation for the period 1992–2009 ranges from 298 to 349 mmw.e. a–1. The interannual variability at the drilling sites is >30%. Accumulation rates show a weak decreasing trend during the past 20–30 years, which is statistically significant only for one of the cores. Stable-isotope ratios were compared to the snowfall temperature of Neumayer station. Neither the temperatures nor the δ18O values show any trend for the investigated time period.

Nearly three decades of stable isotope ratios and surface mass balance (SMB) data from eight shallow firn cores retrieved at Fimbul Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, in the Austral summers 2009–2011 have been investigated. An additional longer core drilled in 2000/2001 extends the series back to the early eighteenth century. Isotope ratios and SMB from the stacked record of all cores were also related to instrumental temperature data from Neumayer Station on Ekström Ice Shelf. Since the second half of the twentieth century, the SMB shows a statistically significant negative trend, whereas the δ18O of the cores shows a significant positive trend. No trend is found in air temperature at the nearest suitable weather station, Neumayer (available since 1981). This does not correspond to the statistically significant positive trend in Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index, which is usually associated with a cooling of East Antarctica. SAM index and SMB are negatively correlated, which might be explained by a decrease in meridional exchange of energy and moisture leading to lower precipitation amounts. Future monitoring of climate change on the sensitive Antarctic ice shelves is necessary to assess its consequences for sea level change.

Holocene climate variability in the southeast Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic is assessed and quantified through integration of available marine sediment core and Antarctic ice core data. We use summer sea surface temperature (SSST) and sea ice presence (SIP) reconstructions from two marine sediment cores recovered north (50 °S) and south (53.2 °S) of the present day Antarctic Polar Front (APF), as well as an atmospheric temperature and sea ice proxy from the EPICA ice core from Dronning Maud Land (EDML). We find reasonably good agreement in the timing of climate evolution in the analyzed series. Almost all records show a gradual glacial-to-Holocene climate transition, interrupted by the Antarctic cold reversal around 13 000 cal yr BP, and early Holocene climatic optimum (HCO) at about 11 000 cal yr BP. During the early HCO, the seasonal ice cover retreats to south of 53 °S; it then readvances in the course of the mid- to late Holocene. The maximum winter sea ice edge position during the recent 10 000 years varied mainly within 51–53 °S, with sporadic growth to north of 50 °S, a position similar to that during the last glacial. The onset of the Neoglacial period after ca 4000 yr BP is associated with a steepening of the SSST gradient between the marine core sites, strengthening of the westerlies and cooling in the inland ice sheet. The agreement in timing between elevated SSST during the early HCO and decreased deuterium excess in EDML and other ice cores from different locations in the East Antarctic suggests that the retreat of sea ice during the early HCO and weakening of the APF was a general feature of the East Antarctic climate during that time.

Enhanced snowfall on the East Antarctic ice sheet is projected to significantly mitigate 21st century global sea level rise. In recent years (2009 and 2011), regionally extreme snowfall anomalies in Dronning Maud Land, in the Atlantic sector of East Antarctica, have been observed. It has been unclear, however, whether these anomalies can be ascribed to natural decadal variability, or whether they could signal the beginning of a long-term increase of snowfall. Here we use output of a regional atmospheric climate model, evaluated with available firn core records and gravimetry observations, and show that such episodes had not been seen previously in the satellite climate data era (1979). Comparisons with historical data that originate from firn cores, one with records extending back to the 18th century, confirm that accumulation anomalies of this scale have not occurred in the past ~60 years, although comparable anomalies are found further back in time. We examined several regional climate model projections, describing various warming scenarios into the 21st century. Anomalies with magnitudes similar to the recently observed ones were not present in the model output for the current climate, but were found increasingly probable toward the end of the 21st century.

Ice shelves play an important role in stabilizing the interior grounded ice of the large ice sheets. The thinning of major ice shelves observed in recent years, possibly in connection to warmer ocean waters coming into contact with the ice-shelf base, has focused attention on the ice-ocean interface. Here we reveal a complex network of sub ice-shelf channels under the Fimbul Ice Shelf, Antarctica, mapped using ground-penetrating radar over a 100 km2 grid. The channels are 300–500 m wide and 50 m high, among the narrowest of any reported. Observing narrow channels beneath an ice shelf that is mainly surrounded by cold ocean waters, with temperatures close to the surface freezing point, shows that channelized basal melting is not restricted to rapidly melting ice shelves, indicating that spatial melt patterns around Antarctica are likely to vary on scales that are not yet incorporated in ice-ocean models.

Basal melt is a major cause of ice shelf thinning affecting the stability of the ice shelf and reducing its buttressing effect on the inland ice. The Fimbul ice shelf (FIS) in Dronning Maud Land (DML), East Antarctica, is fed by the fast-flowing Jutulstraumen glacier, responsible for 10% of ice discharge from the DML sector of the ice sheet. Current estimates of the basal melt rates of the FIS come from regional ocean models, autosub measurements, and satellite observations, which vary considerably. This discrepancy hampers evaluation of the stability of the Jutulstraumen catchment. Here, we present estimates of basal melt rates of the FIS using ground-based interferometric radar. We find a low average basal melt rate on the order of 1 m/yr, with the highest rates located at the ice shelf front, which extends beyond the continental shelf break. Furthermore, our results provide evidence for a significant seasonal variability.

Volcanic signatures in ice-core records provide an excellent means to date the cores and obtain information about accumulation rates. From several ice cores it is thus possible to extract a spatio-temporal accumulation pattern. We show records of electrical conductivity and sulfur from 13 firn cores from the Norwegian-USA scientific traverse during the International Polar Year 2007–2009 (IPY) through East Antarctica. Major volcanic eruptions are identified and used to assess century-scale accumulation changes. The largest changes seem to occur in the most recent decades with accumulation over the period 1963–2007/08 being up to 25% different from the long-term record. There is no clear overall trend, some sites show an increase in accumulation over the period 1963 to present while others show a decrease. Almost all of the sites above 3200 m above sea level (asl) suggest a decrease. These sites also show a significantly lower accumulation value than large-scale assessments both for the period 1963 to present and for the long-term mean at the respective drill sites. The spatial accumulation distribution is influenced mainly by elevation and distance to the ocean (continentality), as expected. Ground-penetrating radar data around the drill sites show a spatial variability within 10–20% over several tens of kilometers, indicating that our drill sites are well representative for the area around them. Our results are important for large-scale assessments of Antarctic mass balance and model validation.

Many challenges remain for estimating the Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), which represents a major uncertainty in predictions of future sea-level rise. Validating continental scale studies is hampered by the sparse distribution of in situ data. Here we present a 26 year mean SMB of the Fimbul ice shelf in East Antarctica between 1983–2009, and recent interannual variability since 2010. We compare these data to the results of large-scale SMB studies for similar time periods, obtained from regional atmospheric modeling and remote sensing. Our in situ data include ground penetrating radar, firn cores, and mass balance stakes and provide information on both temporal and spatial scales. The 26 year mean SMB on the Fimbul ice shelf varies between 170 and 620 kg m−2 a−1 giving a regional average value of 310 ± 70 kg m−2 a−1. Our measurements indicate higher long-term accumulation over large parts of the ice shelf compared to the large-scale studies. We also show that the variability of the mean annual SMB, which can be up to 90%, can be a dominant factor in short-term estimates. The results emphasize the importance of using a combination of ground-based validation data, regional climate models, and remote sensing over a relevant time period in order to achieve a reliable SMB for Antarctica.