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If all the ice in the Antarctic ice sheet were to melt, the world’s oceans would rise about 58 metres. Although nobody expects anything that dramatic to happen, current knowledge doesn’t tell us what we might actually expect. The Fimbulisen project should help eliminate some of the uncertainty.

To investigate recent variability in accumulation and δ18O, we synthesize data from five snow cores, covering the period 1932–96, from the sector 16˚38’ W–4˚48’ E in coastal Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica. the δ18O records from the different sites are remarkably similar and suggest a common stable moisture source for this coastal section of DML. While the accumulation pattern is local, and specific features restricted to the individual sites, the overall accumulation pattern is related to the temperature variability as indicated by coastal instrumental records. Accumulation and δ18O correlate between 1955 and 1985 but deviate thereafter, with the proxy-temperature record showing a positive trend while accumulation decreased. This occurs at the same time as an increase in sea-ice extent in the area, which may have resulted in circulation changes and more northerly storm paths. Both stacked accumulation and δ18O records show that large-scale atmospheric signals, as well as some pronounced individual events, are recorded in DML coastal ice cores.

During the Swedish Antarctic Expedition to Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, 1988–89 the net accumulation was estimated for an area from the coast to about 400 km inland. Stake measurements were used to obtain the spatial variability and firn cores were used for the temporal variability. The mean annual accumulation for the period 1976–88 is about 0.4mw.e. for Riiser-Larsenisen and about 0.3mw.e. for the area above the grounding line. The accumulation rate at higher altitudes, > 2500 m a.s.1., is about 0.1 m w.e. for 1955–88. One record from the ice shelf covers the period 1957–88, and suggests an increase in accumulation of about 12%. Between 1976 and 1988, the accumulation has decreased by about 50%, most likely due to lower temperatures as suggested by the temperature record from Halley.

In this paper a detailed record of major ions from a 20 m deep firn core from Amundsenisen, western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, is presented. The core was drilled at 75° S, 2° E (2900 m a.s.l.) during austral summer 1991/92. The following ions were measured at 3 cm resolution: Na+, Mg2+, Ca2+, Cl−, NO3−, S04 2− and CH3SO3H (MSA). The core was dated back to 1865 using a combination of chemical records and volcanic reference horizons. The volcanic eruptions identified in this core are Mount Ngauruhoe, New Zealand (1974–75), Mount Agung, Indonesia (1963), Azul, Argentina (1932), and a broad peak that corresponds in time toTarawera, New Zealand (1886), Falcon Island, South Shetlands, Southern Ocean (1885), and Krakatau, Indonesia (1883). There are no trends in any of the ion records, but the annual to decadal changes are large. The mean concentrations of the measured ions are in agreement with those from other high-altitude cores from the Antarctic plateau. At this core site there may be a correspondence between peaks in the MSA record and major El Niño–Southern Oscillation events.

The mass balance of Antarctica is one of the crucial factors for determining sea-level change in a warming climate. The marginal zones of the continent, namely the ice shelves, are most sensitive to climate change. During the 2009/10 austral summer an extensive glaciological field campaign was carried out on Fimbulisen, an ice shelf in East Antarctica, to investigate its recent surface mass balance. Shallow (10–18 m) firn cores were drilled and accumulation rates and stable-isotope ratios determined. For firn-core dating, two different methods were compared: (1) seasonal variations of stable oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O), and (2) dielectric profiling, including using the volcanic eruptions of Pinatubo, Philippines (1991), and El Chichόn, Mexico (1982), as time markers. The mean annual accumulation for the period 1992–2009 ranges from 298 to 349 mmw.e. a–1. The interannual variability at the drilling sites is >30%. Accumulation rates show a weak decreasing trend during the past 20–30 years, which is statistically significant only for one of the cores. Stable-isotope ratios were compared to the snowfall temperature of Neumayer station. Neither the temperatures nor the δ18O values show any trend for the investigated time period.

A large-scale force budget was applied using a combination of remote-sensing and field data from Jutulstraumen, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. In the grounded area, more than 95 % of ice flow is balanced by basal friction. In a partly floating section near the grounding-line area, on average lateral drag provides 38% of resistance to flow. Measurement uncertainties were propagated through the calculation of forces. The accuracies of strain rates derived from satellite data (Landsat thematic mapper) were found adequate to calculate meaningful force-balance terms. For the floating section, where lateral forces contribute to controlling flow, the main contribution to errors in the force budget is uncertainty in the rate factor for the flow law of ice. For grounded sections, the uncertainty in ice thickness, as measured by ground-penetrating radar, contributes more or less equally to errors in the force budget as does that in the rate factor.

In this paper a detailed record of major ions from a 20 m deep firn core from Amundsenisen, western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, is presented. The core was drilled at 75° S, 2° E (2900 m a.s.l.) during austral summer 1991/92. The following ions were measured at 3 cm resolution: Na+, Mg2+, Ca2+, Cl−, NO3−, S04 2− and CH3SO3H (MSA). The core was dated back to 1865 using a combination of chemical records and volcanic reference horizons. The volcanic eruptions identified in this core are Mount Ngauruhoe, New Zealand (1974–75), Mount Agung, Indonesia (1963), Azul, Argentina (1932), and a broad peak that corresponds in time toTarawera, New Zealand (1886), Falcon Island, South Shetlands, Southern Ocean (1885), and Krakatau, Indonesia (1883). There are no trends in any of the ion records, but the annual to decadal changes are large. The mean concentrations of the measured ions are in agreement with those from other high-altitude cores from the Antarctic plateau. At this core site there may be a correspondence between peaks in the MSA record and major El Niño–Southern Oscillation events.

During the austral summer 1993/1994, the spatial distribution of snow was mapped by a ground-based snow radar (800–2300 MHz) in western Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. Snow radar soundings were performed along continuous profiles extending from the ice shelf up to the polar plateau, a total distance of 1040 km. The high-resolution radar registrations revealed subsurface layering in the uppermost 12 m of the snowpack. The travel time record was translated into snow accumulation expressed in water equivalents, based on an empirical relationship between wave speed and firn density. A good knowledge on snow density variations with depth is essential for the variability studies. Generally, the snow layering was well developed in the coastal area and less well developed on the polar plateau. High spatial variability in snow accumulation was observed on a regional as well as on a local scale. The variability was very high in areas with large surface slopes, such as the grounding zone and around nunataks. The highest variability was recorded in the nunatak area, where the standard deviation reached 59% of the spatial average accumulation. On the smooth high-altitude plateau, variations in accumulation were less pronounced. However, here the standard deviation exceeded 22% of the average accumulation rate. Provided that the snow radar soundings are supported by dating of reference horizons along the travel route, this is a good method to obtain the accumulation rate and pattern for large areas with a high spatial resolution.

Holocene climate variability in the southeast Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic is assessed and quantified through integration of available marine sediment core and Antarctic ice core data. We use summer sea surface temperature (SSST) and sea ice presence (SIP) reconstructions from two marine sediment cores recovered north (50 °S) and south (53.2 °S) of the present day Antarctic Polar Front (APF), as well as an atmospheric temperature and sea ice proxy from the EPICA ice core from Dronning Maud Land (EDML). We find reasonably good agreement in the timing of climate evolution in the analyzed series. Almost all records show a gradual glacial-to-Holocene climate transition, interrupted by the Antarctic cold reversal around 13 000 cal yr BP, and early Holocene climatic optimum (HCO) at about 11 000 cal yr BP. During the early HCO, the seasonal ice cover retreats to south of 53 °S; it then readvances in the course of the mid- to late Holocene. The maximum winter sea ice edge position during the recent 10 000 years varied mainly within 51–53 °S, with sporadic growth to north of 50 °S, a position similar to that during the last glacial. The onset of the Neoglacial period after ca 4000 yr BP is associated with a steepening of the SSST gradient between the marine core sites, strengthening of the westerlies and cooling in the inland ice sheet. The agreement in timing between elevated SSST during the early HCO and decreased deuterium excess in EDML and other ice cores from different locations in the East Antarctic suggests that the retreat of sea ice during the early HCO and weakening of the APF was a general feature of the East Antarctic climate during that time.

During 1996-97 a European Project for Ice Goring in Antarctica (EPIGA) pre-site surveying traverse worked in the area between 70° S, 5° E and 75° S, 15° E in Dronning Maud Land. We present data obtained from 10 and 20 m deep firn cores drilled between the coast and 600 km inland (to 3450 m a.s.l.). The cores were analyzed for electrical conductivity measurements and total β activity to obtain accumulation data between known time horizons. In addition, some of the cores were analyzed for oxygen isotopes. Annual accumulation varies from 271 mm we. at Fimbulisen to 24 mm we at 2840 m a.s.l. Accumulation at core sites 2400-3000 m a.s.l. has increased by 16-48% since 1965 compared to the 1955-65 period. However, the core sites above 3250 m a.s.l. and one core location on the ice shelf show a decrease during the same period. Furthermore, no change can be detected at the most inland site for the period 1815-1996. In all the cores the last few years seem to have been some of the warmest in these records.

We report in this study the distribution of 10Be in the top 40 m of the Renland ice core (East Greenland) and in a 30 m long core from DML (Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica) for the period 1931–1988. The two sites show differences in10Be content, the Antarctica site showing smaller variance and a lower average 10Be annual flux. Similarly, the average accumulation rate (cm water equivalent year−1) is higher in the Renland relative to DML. The variability in accumulation (precipitation) rates seems to explain part of the difference in10Be flux between the two polar sites. Cyclic fluctuations of 10Be flux correlate with the 11-year sunspot number and cosmic ray intensity than with the aa index (perturbation of the geomagnetic activity by the solar wind). Our data corroborate 10Be cyclic fluctuation pattern from the Dye 3 ice core and confirm a promising potential for correlation of global and local events.

As a result of intensive field activities carried out by several nations over the past 15 years, a set of accumulation measurements for western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, was collected, based on firn-core drilling and snow-pit sampling. This new information was supplemented by earlier data taken from the literature, resulting in 111 accumulation values. Using Geographical Information Systems software, a first region-wide mean annual snow-accumulation field was derived. In order to define suitable interpolation criteria, the accumulation records were analyzed with respect to their spatial autocorrelation and statistical properties. The resulting accumulation pattern resembles well- known characteristics such as a relatively wet coastal area with a sharp transition to the dry interior, but also reveals complex topographic effects. Furthermore, this work identifies new high-return shallowdrilling sites by uncovering areas of insufficient sampling density.

We use a network of eight ice cores from coastal Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica, to examine the role of the tropical ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) in the temporal variability of δ18O in annual accumulation. The longest record from the S100 ice core covering the period 1737–1999 is used to analyze the teleconnections between the tropical Pacific and coastal DML on decadal scales and longer. A shorter stacked coastal DML δ18O series spanning 1955–1999 is constructed to assess the variability of ENSO teleconnection on interannual scales. Results suggest that, on typical ENSO timescales of 2–6 years, the strength of the teleconnection varies in time, being stronger for years with generally negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). On the timescales of approximately two decades (bidecadal), positive isotope anomalies are associated with oceanic warming and a westward sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the equatorial Pacific. Bidecadal variability in SAM, forced by the tropical Pacific, is proposed as a critical element in the teleconnection. Our analysis suggests that a multidecadal positive trend in the annual mean δ18O values from the analyzed cores can be indicative of the atmospheric warming that begun in this part of the DML already in the 1910s. The trend in δ18O, quantified in terms of long-term surface air temperature (SAT) changes, is consistent with the instrumental data. Yet, we speculate that the accurate estimation of SAT trends requires an assessment of the potential role of secular SAM and sea ice extent changes in shaping the isotopic signal.

Temperature, density and accumulation data were obtained from shallow firn cores, drilled during an overland traverse through a previously unknown part of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. The traverse area is characterised by high mountains that obstruct the ice flow, resulting in a sudden transition from the polar plateau to the coastal region. The spatial variations of potential temperature, near-surface firn density and accumulation suggest that katabatic winds are active in this region. Proxy wind data derived from firn-density profiles confirm that annual mean wind speed is strongly related to the magnitude of the surface slope. The high elevation of the ice sheet south of the mountains makes for a dry, cold climate, in which mass loss owing to sublimation is small and erosion of snow by the wind has a potentially large impact on the surface mass balance. A simple katabatic-wind model is used to explain the variations of accumulation along the traverse line in terms of divergence/convergence of the local transport of drifting snow. The resulting wind- and snowdrift patterns are closely connected to the topography of the ice sheet: ridges are especially sensitive to erosion, while ice streams and other depressions act as collectors of drifting snow.

Enhanced snowfall on the East Antarctic ice sheet is projected to significantly mitigate 21st century global sea level rise. In recent years (2009 and 2011), regionally extreme snowfall anomalies in Dronning Maud Land, in the Atlantic sector of East Antarctica, have been observed. It has been unclear, however, whether these anomalies can be ascribed to natural decadal variability, or whether they could signal the beginning of a long-term increase of snowfall. Here we use output of a regional atmospheric climate model, evaluated with available firn core records and gravimetry observations, and show that such episodes had not been seen previously in the satellite climate data era (1979). Comparisons with historical data that originate from firn cores, one with records extending back to the 18th century, confirm that accumulation anomalies of this scale have not occurred in the past ~60 years, although comparable anomalies are found further back in time. We examined several regional climate model projections, describing various warming scenarios into the 21st century. Anomalies with magnitudes similar to the recently observed ones were not present in the model output for the current climate, but were found increasingly probable toward the end of the 21st century.

[1] Ground-based accumulation measurements are scarce on the high East Antarctic plateau, but highly necessary for model validation and the interpretation of satellite data for the determination of Antarctic mass balance. Here, we present accumulation results obtained from four shallow firn cores drilled in the Antarctic summer season 2007/2008. The cores were drilled along the first leg of the Norwegian-US IPY traverse through East Antarctica, visiting sites like Plateau Station and Pole of Relative Inaccessibility that have been covered by the South Pole Queen Maud Land Traverses (SPQMLT) in the 1960s. Accumulation has been determined from volcanic chronology established from the conductivity records measured by dielectric profiling (DEP). The Tambora 1815/unknown 1809 double peak is clearly visible in the conductivity data and serves as a reliable time marker. Accumulation rates averaged over the period 1815–2007 are in the range of 16 to 32 kg m−2 a−1, somewhat lower than expected from the SPQMLT data. The spatial pattern is mainly influenced by elevation and continentality. Three of the firn cores show a decrease of more than 20% in accumulation for the time period 1815–2007 in relation to accumulation rates during the period 1641–1815. The spatial representativity of the firn cores is assessed by ground-penetrating radar, showing a rather smoothly layered pattern around the drill sites. Validation of the DEP results is utilized by comparison with chemistry data, proving the validity of the DEP method for dating firn cores. The results help understanding the status of the East Antarctic ice sheet and will be important for e.g. future model-derived estimates of the mass balance of Antarctica.

During the austral summer of 1993-94 a number of 1-2 m deep snow pits were sampled in connection with firn-coring in western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. The traverse went from 800 to about 3000 m a.s.l. upon the high-altitude plateau. Profiles of cations (Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+), anions (Cl−, NO3-, SO42- , CH3SO3−) and stable oxygen isotopes (δ18O) from 11 snow pils are presented here. Close to the coast 2 m of snow accumulates in about 2-3 years, whilst at sites on the high-altitude plateau 2 m of snow accumulates in 10—14 years. The spatial variation in ion concentrations shows that the ions can be divided into two groups, one with sea-salt elements and methane sulfonate and the other with nitrate and sulfate. For the sca-salt elements and methane sulfonate the concentrations decrease with increasing altitude and increasing distance from the coast, as well as with decreasing temperature and decreasing accumulation rate. For nitrate and sulfate the concentrations are constant or increase with respect to these parameters. This pattern suggests that the sources for sca-salt elements and methane sulfonate are local, whereas the sources for nitrate and sulfate are a mixture of local and long-range transport.