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The mechanisms by which heat is delivered to Antarctic ice shelves are a major source of uncertainty when assessing the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change. Direct observations of the ice shelf-ocean interaction are extremely scarce and in many regions melt rates from ice shelf-ocean models are not constrained by measurements. Our two years of data (2010 and 2011) from three oceanic moorings below the Fimbul Ice Shelf in the Eastern Weddell Sea show cold cavity waters, with average temperatures of less than 0.1°C above the surface freezing point. This suggests low basal melt rates, consistent with remote sensing-based, steady-state mass balance estimates for this sector of the Antarctic coast. Oceanic heat for basal melting is found to be supplied by two sources of warm water entering below the ice: (i) eddy-like bursts of Modified Warm Deep Water that access the cavity at depth for eight months of the record; and (ii) fresh surface water that flushes parts of the ice base with temperatures above freezing during late summer and fall. This interplay of processes implies that basal melting at the Fimbul Ice Shelf cannot simply be parameterized by coastal deep ocean temperatures, but instead appears directly linked to both solar forcing at the surface as well as to the dynamics of the coastal current system.

The buttressing potential of ice shelves is modulated by changes in subshelf melting, in response to changing ocean conditions. We analyze the temporal variability in subshelf melting using an autonomous phase-sensitive radio-echo sounder near the grounding line of the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in East Antarctica. When combined with additional oceanographic evidence of seasonal variations in the stratification and the amplification of diurnal tides around the shelf break topography (Gunnerus Bank), the results suggest an intricate mechanism in which topographic waves control the seasonal melt rate variability near the grounding line. This mechanism has not been considered before and has the potential to enhance local melt rates without advecting different water masses. As topographic waves seem to strengthen in a stratified ocean, the freshening of Antarctic surface water, predicted by observations and models, is likely to increase future basal melting in this area.

Abstract Solar heated, fresh Antarctic Surface Water (ASW) is a permanent feature along the Eastern Weddell Sea (EWS) coast in summer down to a depth of roughly 200 m. Recently, ASW has been observed beneath the Fimbul Ice Shelf, suggesting that it might play an important role in basal melting. We propose that wind-driven coastal downwelling is the main mechanism that spreads ASW beneath the ice shelf in this sector of Antarctica. We validate this hypothesis with observations, scaling analyses, and numerical modeling, along three principle lines: (i) data analyses of about 1500 salinity profiles collected by instrumented seals indicate that the observed freshening of the coastal water column is likely explained by the on-shore Ekman transport and subsequent downwelling of ASW; (ii) an analytical model of the coastal momentum balance indicates that wind-driven downwelling is capable of depressing the buoyant surface water to a depth similar to the ice shelf draft; and (iii) simulations from both idealized and regional eddy-resolving numerical ice shelf/ocean models support our proposition. Our main conclusion is that wind-driven spreading of ASW beneath the ice shelf occurs when downwelling exceeds the depth of the ice shelf base. Furthermore, our study adds to the understanding of the oceanic processes at the Antarctic Slope Front in the EWS, with possible implications for other sectors of Antarctica.

Basal melt is a major cause of ice shelf thinning affecting the stability of the ice shelf and reducing its buttressing effect on the inland ice. The Fimbul ice shelf (FIS) in Dronning Maud Land (DML), East Antarctica, is fed by the fast-flowing Jutulstraumen glacier, responsible for 10% of ice discharge from the DML sector of the ice sheet. Current estimates of the basal melt rates of the FIS come from regional ocean models, autosub measurements, and satellite observations, which vary considerably. This discrepancy hampers evaluation of the stability of the Jutulstraumen catchment. Here, we present estimates of basal melt rates of the FIS using ground-based interferometric radar. We find a low average basal melt rate on the order of 1 m/yr, with the highest rates located at the ice shelf front, which extends beyond the continental shelf break. Furthermore, our results provide evidence for a significant seasonal variability.

A climatically induced acceleration in ocean-driven melting of Antarctic ice shelves would have consequences for both the discharge of continental ice into the ocean and thus global sea level, and for the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water and the oceanic meridional overturning circulation. Using a novel gas-tight in situ water sampler, noble gas samples have been collected from six locations beneath the Filchner Ice Shelf, the first such samples from beneath an Antarctic ice shelf. Helium and neon are uniquely suited as tracers of glacial meltwater in the ocean. Basal meltwater fractions range from 3.6% near the ice shelf base to 0.5% near the sea floor, with distinct regional differences. We estimate an average basal melt rate for the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf of 177 ± 95 Gt/year, independently confirming previous results. We calculate that up to 2.7% of the meltwater has been refrozen, and we identify a local source of crustal helium.

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.