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The mechanisms by which heat is delivered to Antarctic ice shelves are a major source of uncertainty when assessing the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change. Direct observations of the ice shelf-ocean interaction are extremely scarce and in many regions melt rates from ice shelf-ocean models are not constrained by measurements. Our two years of data (2010 and 2011) from three oceanic moorings below the Fimbul Ice Shelf in the Eastern Weddell Sea show cold cavity waters, with average temperatures of less than 0.1°C above the surface freezing point. This suggests low basal melt rates, consistent with remote sensing-based, steady-state mass balance estimates for this sector of the Antarctic coast. Oceanic heat for basal melting is found to be supplied by two sources of warm water entering below the ice: (i) eddy-like bursts of Modified Warm Deep Water that access the cavity at depth for eight months of the record; and (ii) fresh surface water that flushes parts of the ice base with temperatures above freezing during late summer and fall. This interplay of processes implies that basal melting at the Fimbul Ice Shelf cannot simply be parameterized by coastal deep ocean temperatures, but instead appears directly linked to both solar forcing at the surface as well as to the dynamics of the coastal current system.

Changes in ocean-driven basal melting have a key influence on the stability of ice shelves, the mass loss from the ice sheet, ocean circulation, and global sea level rise. Coupled ice sheet–ocean models play a critical role in understanding future ice sheet evolution and examining the processes governing ice sheet responses to basal melting. However, as a new approach, coupled ice sheet–ocean systems come with new challenges, and the impacts of solutions implemented to date have not been investigated. An emergent feature in several contributing coupled models to the 1st Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP1) was a time-varying oscillation in basal melt rates. Here, we use a recently developed coupling framework, FISOC (v1.1), to connect the modified ocean model ROMSIceShelf (v1.0) and ice sheet model Elmer/Ice (v9.0), to investigate the origin and implications of the feature and, more generally, the impact of coupled modeling strategies on the simulated basal melt in an idealized ice shelf cavity based on the MISOMIP setup. We found the spatial-averaged basal melt rates (3.56 m yr−1) oscillated with an amplitude ∼0.7 m yr−1 and approximate period of ∼6 years between year 30 and 100 depending on the experimental design. The melt oscillations emerged in the coupled system and the standalone ocean model using a prescribed change of cavity geometry. We found that the oscillation feature is closely related to the discretized ungrounding of the ice sheet, exposing new ocean, and is likely strengthened by a combination of positive buoyancy–melt feedback and/or melt–geometry feedback near the grounding line, and the frequent coupling of ice geometry and ocean evolution. Sensitivity tests demonstrate that the oscillation feature is always present, regardless of the choice of coupling interval, vertical resolution in the ocean model, tracer properties of cells ungrounded by the retreating ice sheet, or the dependency of friction velocities to the vertical resolution. However, the amplitude, phase, and sub-cycle variability of the oscillation varied significantly across the different configurations. We were unable to ultimately determine whether the feature arises purely due to numerical issues (related to discretization) or a compounding of multiple physical processes amplifying a numerical artifact. We suggest a pathway and choices of physical parameters to help other efforts understand the coupled ice sheet–ocean system using numerical models.

The Weddell Sea is of global importance in the formation of dense bottom waters associated with sea ice formation and ocean-ice sheet interaction occurring on the shelf areas. In this context, the Weddell Sea boundary current system (BCS) presents a major conduit for transporting relatively warm water to the Weddell Sea ice shelves and for exporting some modified form of Wedell Sea deep and bottom waters into the open ocean. This study investigates the downstream evolution of the structure and the seasonality of the BCS along the Weddell Sea continental slope, combining ocean data collected for the past two decades at three study locations. The interannual-mean geostrophic flow, which follows planetary potential vorticity contours, shifts from being surface intensified to bottom intensified along stream. The shift occurs due to the densification of water masses and the decreasing surface stress that occurs westward, toward the Antarctic Peninsula. A coherent along-slope seasonal acceleration of the barotropic flow exists, with maximum speed in austral autumn and minimum speed in austral summer. The barotropic flow significantly contributes to the seasonal variability in bottom velocity along the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. Our analysis suggests that the winds on the eastern/northeastern side of the gyre determines the seasonal acceleration of the barotropic flow. In turn, they might control the export of Weddell Sea Bottom Water on seasonal time scales. The processes controlling the baroclinic seasonality of the flow need further investigation.

Understanding changes in Antarctic ice shelf basal melting is a major challenge for predicting future sea level. Currently, warm Circumpolar Deep Water surrounding Antarctica has limited access to the Weddell Sea continental shelf; consequently, melt rates at Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf are low. However, large-scale model projections suggest that changes to the Antarctic Slope Front and the coastal circulation may enhance warm inflows within this century. We use a regional high-resolution ice shelf cavity and ocean circulation model to explore forcing changes that may trigger this regime shift. Our results suggest two necessary conditions for supporting a sustained warm inflow into the Filchner Ice Shelf cavity: (i) an extreme relaxation of the Antarctic Slope Front density gradient and (ii) substantial freshening of the dense shelf water. We also find that the on-shelf transport over the western Weddell Sea shelf is sensitive to the Filchner Trough overflow characteristics.

We are in a period of rapidly accelerating change across the Antarctic continent and Southern Ocean, with land ice loss leading to sea level rise and multiple other climate impacts. The ice-ocean interactions that dominate the current ice loss signal are a key underdeveloped area of knowledge. The paucity of direct and continuous observations leads to high uncertainty in the glaciological, oceanographic and atmospheric fields required to constrain ice-ocean interactions, and there is a lack of standardised protocols for reconciling observations across different platforms and technologies and modelled outputs. Funding to support observational campaigns is under increasing pressure, including for long-term, internationally coordinated monitoring plans for the Antarctic continent and Southern Ocean. In this Practice Bridge article, we outline research priorities highlighted by the international ice-ocean community and propose the development of a Framework for UnderStanding Ice-Ocean iNteractions (FUSION), using a combined observational-modelling approach, to address these issues. Finally, we propose an implementation plan for putting FUSION into practice by focusing first on an essential variable in ice-ocean interactions: ocean-driven ice shelf melt.

Ice shelves play an important role in stabilizing the interior grounded ice of the large ice sheets. The thinning of major ice shelves observed in recent years, possibly in connection to warmer ocean waters coming into contact with the ice-shelf base, has focused attention on the ice-ocean interface. Here we reveal a complex network of sub ice-shelf channels under the Fimbul Ice Shelf, Antarctica, mapped using ground-penetrating radar over a 100 km2 grid. The channels are 300–500 m wide and 50 m high, among the narrowest of any reported. Observing narrow channels beneath an ice shelf that is mainly surrounded by cold ocean waters, with temperatures close to the surface freezing point, shows that channelized basal melting is not restricted to rapidly melting ice shelves, indicating that spatial melt patterns around Antarctica are likely to vary on scales that are not yet incorporated in ice-ocean models.

Basal melt is a major cause of ice shelf thinning affecting the stability of the ice shelf and reducing its buttressing effect on the inland ice. The Fimbul ice shelf (FIS) in Dronning Maud Land (DML), East Antarctica, is fed by the fast-flowing Jutulstraumen glacier, responsible for 10% of ice discharge from the DML sector of the ice sheet. Current estimates of the basal melt rates of the FIS come from regional ocean models, autosub measurements, and satellite observations, which vary considerably. This discrepancy hampers evaluation of the stability of the Jutulstraumen catchment. Here, we present estimates of basal melt rates of the FIS using ground-based interferometric radar. We find a low average basal melt rate on the order of 1 m/yr, with the highest rates located at the ice shelf front, which extends beyond the continental shelf break. Furthermore, our results provide evidence for a significant seasonal variability.

A climatically induced acceleration in ocean-driven melting of Antarctic ice shelves would have consequences for both the discharge of continental ice into the ocean and thus global sea level, and for the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water and the oceanic meridional overturning circulation. Using a novel gas-tight in situ water sampler, noble gas samples have been collected from six locations beneath the Filchner Ice Shelf, the first such samples from beneath an Antarctic ice shelf. Helium and neon are uniquely suited as tracers of glacial meltwater in the ocean. Basal meltwater fractions range from 3.6% near the ice shelf base to 0.5% near the sea floor, with distinct regional differences. We estimate an average basal melt rate for the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf of 177 ± 95 Gt/year, independently confirming previous results. We calculate that up to 2.7% of the meltwater has been refrozen, and we identify a local source of crustal helium.

The Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, the ocean cavity beneath it, and the Weddell Sea that bounds it, form an important part of the global climate system by modulating ice discharge from the Antarctic Ice Sheet and producing cold dense water masses that feed the global thermohaline circulation. A prerequisite for modeling the ice sheet and oceanographic processes within the cavity is an accurate knowledge of the sub-ice sheet bedrock elevation, but beneath the ice shelf where airborne radar cannot penetrate, bathymetric data are sparse. This paper presents new seismic point measurements of cavity geometry from a particularly poorly sampled region south of Berkner Island that connects the Filchner and Ronne ice shelves. An updated bathymetric grid formed by combining the new data with existing data sets reveals several new features. In particular, a sill running between Berkner Island and the mainland could alter ocean circulation within the cavity and change our understanding of paleo-ice stream flow in the region. Also revealed are deep troughs near the grounding lines of Foundation and Support Force ice streams, which provide access for seawater with melting potential. Running an ocean tidal model with the new bathymetry reveals large differences in tidal current velocities, both within the new gridded region and further afield, potentially affecting sub-ice shelf melt rates.

The shape of ice shelf cavities are a major source of uncertainty in understanding ice-ocean interactions. This limits assessments of the response of the Antarctic ice sheets to climate change. Here we use vibroseis seismic reflection surveys to map the bathymetry beneath the Ekström Ice Shelf, Dronning Maud Land. The new bathymetry reveals an inland-sloping trough, reaching depths of 1,100 m below sea level, near the current grounding line, which we attribute to erosion by palaeo-ice streams. The trough does not cross-cut the outer parts of the continental shelf. Conductivity-temperature-depth profiles within the ice shelf cavity reveal the presence of cold water at shallower depths and tidal mixing at the ice shelf margins. It is unknown if warm water can access the trough. The new bathymetry is thought to be representative of many ice shelves in Dronning Maud Land, which together regulate the ice loss from a substantial area of East Antarctica.

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.