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Basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves significantly contributes to ice sheet mass loss, with distinct regional disparities in melt rates driven by ocean properties. In Dronning Maud Land (DML), East Antarctica, cold water predominantly fills the ice shelf cavities, resulting in generally low annual melt rates. In this study, we present a 4-year record of basal melt rates at the Ekström Ice Shelf, measured using an autonomous phase-sensitive radio-echo sounder (ApRES). Observations reveal a low mean annual melt rate of 0.44 m a−1, with a seasonal variability. Enhanced melting occurs in winter and spring, peaking at over 1 m a−1, while rates are decreased in summer and autumn. We hypothesise that the dense water formed during sea-ice formation erodes the water column stratification during late winter and spring, leading to an increase in the buoyancy of the ice shelf water plume. An idealised plume model supports this hypothesis, indicating that the plume velocity is the primary driver of seasonal basal melt rate variability, while changes in ambient water temperature play a secondary role in the range of oceanographic conditions that are observed below the Ekström Ice Shelf. These findings offer new insights into the dynamics of ice–ocean interactions in East Antarctica, emphasising the need for further observations to refine our understanding of ocean variability within ice shelf cavities and improve assessments of ice shelf mass balance.

Basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves significantly contributes to ice sheet mass loss, with distinct regional disparities in melt rates driven by ocean properties. In Dronning Maud Land (DML), East Antarctica, cold water predominantly fills the ice shelf cavities, resulting in generally low annual melt rates. In this study, we present a 4-year record of basal melt rates at the Ekström Ice Shelf, measured using an autonomous phase-sensitive radio-echo sounder (ApRES). Observations reveal a low mean annual melt rate of 0.44 m a−1, with a seasonal variability. Enhanced melting occurs in winter and spring, peaking at over 1 m a−1, while rates are decreased in summer and autumn. We hypothesise that the dense water formed during sea-ice formation erodes the water column stratification during late winter and spring, leading to an increase in the buoyancy of the ice shelf water plume. An idealised plume model supports this hypothesis, indicating that the plume velocity is the primary driver of seasonal basal melt rate variability, while changes in ambient water temperature play a secondary role in the range of oceanographic conditions that are observed below the Ekström Ice Shelf. These findings offer new insights into the dynamics of ice–ocean interactions in East Antarctica, emphasising the need for further observations to refine our understanding of ocean variability within ice shelf cavities and improve assessments of ice shelf mass balance.

Continuous moored time series of temperature, salinity, pressure and current speed and direction are of great importance for understanding the continental shelf and under-ice-shelf dynamics and thermodynamics that govern water mass transformations and ice melting in and around Antarctic marginal seas. In these regions, icebergs and sea ice make ship-based mooring deployment and recovery challenging. Nevertheless, over decades, expeditions around the fringe of Antarctica sporadically deployed and recovered hundreds of moored instruments, including those facilitated through ice shelves boreholes. These datasets tend to be archived in a wide range of data centres, with, to our knowledge, no clear format standardisation. As a result, systematic analysis of historical mooring time series in the marginal seas is often challenging. Here we present the first version of a standardised pan-Antarctic moored hydrography and current time series compilation, with broad international contributions from data centres, research institutes and individual data owners. The mooring records in this compilation span over five decades, from the 1970s to the 2020s, providing an opportunity for a systematic study of the pan-Antarctic water mass transport and shelf connectivity. As a demonstration of the utility of this compilation, we present spectral analysis of the compiled current velocity time series, which unsurprisingly shows the dominating presence of tidal variability within most records. This component of the variability is fitted using multi-linear regression to tidal frequencies, and the tidal fit is removed from the original time series to leave de-tided variability. Given the limited record durations to months to years, de-tided variability is dominated by synoptic (3–10 d period), intraseasonal (10–80 d) and seasonal (∼6 months–1 year) signals. The spatial distribution of the kinetic energy integrated within frequency bands is presented and discussed within respective regional contexts, and future avenues of research are proposed. This data compilation is assembled under the endorsement of Ocean-Cryosphere Exchanges in ANtarctica: Impacts on Climate and the Earth System (OCEAN ICE) project (https://ocean-ice.eu/, last access: 23 October 2025) funded by the European Commission and UK Research and Innovation. It is available and regularly updated in NetCDF format with the SEANOE database at https://doi.org/10.17882/99922 (Zhou et al., 2024a).

The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.